← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 30% | 28% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 37' | ⚽ | Salif Sané · Hannover |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ihlas Bebou · Hannover |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gojko Kačar · FC Augsburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jonathan Schmid · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 374.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1641.55 | 1664.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.92 | -18.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |