← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 85% | 91% | 1.15 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 11% | 6% | 8.80 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 4% | 3% | 24.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 1 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 155.00 |
| 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1928.11 | 1454.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.85 | -16.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 63.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.13 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.89 | — |
| state index | 1.75 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |