← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 42% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Franco di Santo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days |
| 312.00 |
| 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1507.76 | 1664.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.42 | 14.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.68 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |