← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 66% | 76% | 1.47 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 21% | 14% | 4.64 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 12% | 10% | 7.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Alexander Schwolow · FC Bayern München |
| 28' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · FC Bayern München |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
| 60' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · SC Freiburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2285.00 |
| 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1543.14 | 1922.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.78 | 3.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 2.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.17 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |