← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 38% | 37% | 2.58 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 34% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Claudio Pizarro · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Holger Badstuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 57' | ⚽ | Andreas Beck · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | 🟨 | Timo Baumgartl · VfB Stuttgart |
| 86' | ⚽ | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 1737.00 |
| 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1504.94 | 1544.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.28 | 23.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |