← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Hertha win | 15% | 18% | 6.49 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Marko Pjaca · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 1126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1772.86 | 1668.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.43 | 11.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.97 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |