← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 46% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Gerrit Holtmann · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Walace · Hamburger SV |
| 34' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 61' | 🟥 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Santos · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1573.30 | 1624.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | 1.04 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.83 | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |