← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 55% | 47% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
| Hannover win | 19% | 32% | 5.21 | value: +65% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 732.00 | 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1696.29 | 1648.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.54 | -13.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |