← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 48% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +8% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 456.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1708.85 | 1681.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.62 | 21.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 27.09 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |