← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 65% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.59 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 14% | 16% | 6.94 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jean-Kévin Augustin · RB Leipzig |
| 13' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | ⚽ | Vincent Koziello · 1. FC Köln |
| 77' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 604.00 | 1730.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1775.18 | 1602.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.90 | 2.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 38.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.44 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |