← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 38' | 🟥 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Max Meyer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Retsos · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 361.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1769.19 | 1754.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.01 | -2.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.50 | 25.98 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |