← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 45% | 57% | 2.16 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.23 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 25% | 21% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Rick Van Drongelen · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 146.00 |
| 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1556.94 | 1460.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.87 | -22.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.25 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |