← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 40% | 50% | 2.45 | value: +22% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 31% | 21% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Erik Thommy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 23' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christian Gentner · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 54.00 |
| 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1534.61 | 1586.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.01 | 38.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |