← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.01 | value: +13% |
| SC Freiburg win | 19% | 15% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dennis Geiger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| coach days |
| 754.00 |
| 2277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1598.27 | 1539.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.65 | 21.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |