← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 38% | 42% | 2.55 | value: +7% |
| Hannover win | 34% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Hannover |
| 72' | ⚽ | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 83' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · Hannover |
| 85' | 🟨 | Raúl Bobadilla · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 360.00 |
| 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1560.52 | 1579.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.62 | -33.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |