← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 87% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.36 | fair |
| Hertha win | 6% | 3% | 16.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 1119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 0.60 |
| -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1931.51 | 1550.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.07 | 5.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 59.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.89 | — |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |