← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 44% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +7% |
| Wolfsburg win | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Yoshinori Muto · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1625.27 | 1656.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.27 | -25.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.11 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |