← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 33% | 36% | 2.91 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 720.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1695.68 | 1795.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.42 | 28.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 23.84 |
| state index | 0.77 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |