← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 47% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 25% | 24% | 3.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · FC Augsburg |
| 27' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ron-Robert Zieler · VfB Stuttgart |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raphael Framberger · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 627.00 |
| 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1568.45 | 1521.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |