← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 67% | 72% | 1.45 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.92 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 13% | 11% | 7.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
| 11' | 🟨 | Sebastian Jung · Wolfsburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thiago Alcântara · FC Bayern München |
| 37' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
| 54' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
| 80' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gian-Luca Itter · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 16.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1659.09 | 2050.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.74 | 18.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 28.78 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |