← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1747.29 | 1715.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.52 | -13.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| league points | 34.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |