← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 50% | 39% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 23% | 36% | 4.22 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 47.00 |
| 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1467.50 | 1643.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.52 | -4.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.60 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |