← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 36% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Amir Abrashi · SC Freiburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2270.00 |
| 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1530.55 | 1566.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.95 | 23.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |