← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 23% | 24% | 4.29 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1111.00 |
| 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1571.49 | 1487.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.01 | -16.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 30.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |