← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 50% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 23% | 24% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 49' | ⚽ | Paul Verhaegh · Wolfsburg |
| 72' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1672.98 | 1671.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.58 | -15.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| league points | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |