← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 59% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.26 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 18% | 16% | 5.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |