← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 47% | 45% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +7% |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Waldemar Anton · Hannover |
| 54' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Hannover |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marco Terrazzino · SC Freiburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 346.00 | 2263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1650.46 | 1660.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.87 | 25.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 24.83 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |