← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 45% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Hannover win | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Iver Fossum · Hannover |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Matthias Ostrzolek · Hannover |
| 86' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 34.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1590.22 | 1650.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.61 | -11.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 26.60 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |