← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 41% | 34% | 2.36 | fair |
| Hertha win | 31% | 37% | 3.14 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 58' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 75' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dennis Geiger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1098.00 | 733.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1658.09 | 1705.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.92 | -22.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.85 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 25.07 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |