← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 51% | 37% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 23% | 36% | 4.27 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Amir Abrashi · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · SC Freiburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Kath · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 2256.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1658.93 | 1786.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.63 | 22.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 25.00 |
| state index | 0.59 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |