← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 49% | 45% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
| Hertha win | 23% | 25% | 4.16 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 15' | 🟨 | Philipp Bargfrede · SV Werder Bremen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days | 118.00 | 1091.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1540.79 | 1548.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | 26.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |