← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 67% | 1.59 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.08 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 15% | 12% | 6.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 9' | ⚽ | Bruma · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Hamburger SV |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 575.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1755.09 | 1584.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.63 | -42.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.55 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |