← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 36% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Emiliano Insúa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 19' | ⚽ | Holger Badstuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yoshinori Muto · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nigel de Jong · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Yoshinori Muto · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gerrit Holtmann · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · VfB Stuttgart |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benjamin Pavard · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Zentner · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1496.89 | 1529.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.45 | -22.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |