← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 23% | 26% | 4.32 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 27' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 67' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 19.00 | 1694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1482.80 | 1487.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.69 | 5.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |