← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 43% | 49% | 2.27 | value: +10% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1688.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1474.73 | 1625.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.51 | -9.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.35 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |