← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 38% | 44% | 2.59 | value: +14% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 104.00 | 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1542.55 | 1620.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.09 | -1.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |