← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 41% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 26' | ⚽ | Yoshinori Muto · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Alexander Hack · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 64' | 🟨 | Alexander Hack · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 318.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1555.25 | 1503.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.79 | -26.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |