← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.61 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 25% | 30% | 3.98 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1665.40 | 1619.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.99 | -21.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |