← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 34% | 3.59 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 67' | ⚽ | Christian Clemens · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Divock Origi · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1659.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1463.49 | 1566.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.24 | 22.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| league points | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.19 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |