← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.87 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 21% | 17% | 4.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 48' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 563.00 | 2207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1691.22 | 1635.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.78 | 20.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 24.73 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |