← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 61% | 45% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +11% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 15% | 27% | 6.47 | value: +77% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lamine Sané · SV Werder Bremen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ole Käuper · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 287.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1764.13 | 1671.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.28 | 25.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 27.03 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |