← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 91% | 82% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 14% | 14.50 | value: +106% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 2% | 4% | 41.00 | value: +69% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 68.00 | 1656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1906.57 | 1464.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.26 | -12.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.86 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.33 | — |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |