← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 42% | 34% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 28% | 37% | 3.48 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 26 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 467.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1626.83 | 1659.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.45 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |