← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 37% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Denis Zakaria · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 71' | 🟨 | Michaël Cuisance · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 2203.00 | 376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1623.29 | 1749.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.72 | 3.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 26.42 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |