← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 40% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +6% |
| SC Freiburg win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 20' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
| 25' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Caleb Stanko · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 25 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1653.00 | 2201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1475.88 | 1489.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | -22.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.21 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |