← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | value: +3% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Nico Elvedi · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 24' | ⚽ | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 41' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Jannik Vestergaard · FC Schalke 04 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 373.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1750.79 | 1763.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.11 | 9.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |