← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 38% | 29% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +15% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 30% | 35% | 3.23 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1036.00 | 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1645.39 | 1650.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | 10.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 25.31 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |