← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 67% | 59% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.84 | value: +9% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 13% | 19% | 7.57 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 36' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | ⚽ | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟥 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 184.00 | 1645.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1654.73 | 1476.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.53 | -5.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | — |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.67 | — |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |