← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 36% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +7% |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 33% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dennis Diekmeier · Hamburger SV |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bobby Wood · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days | 2192.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1613.65 | 1625.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.36 | 19.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.65 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |