← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 41% | 28% | 2.39 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 30% | 45% | 3.27 | value: +47% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1639.00 | 1029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1492.73 | 1518.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.83 | -0.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |